As Kim and Trump face off in Hanoi, analysts say neither is politically incentivized to aim for big concessions.
“For both leaders, a limited amount of progress is going to be success enough,” Richard Fenning, CEO of risk consultancy Control Risks, said Wednesday. “This, I think, is a kind of continuity summit.”
Fenning and others have forecast that Thursday’s talks will likely conclude with an agreement that includes opening representative offices in each other’s countries and potentially some move to officially declare an end to the Korean War (the fighting stopped in 1953 following an armistice).
Okun, also suggested that the day’s meetings are likely to end with some sort of peace declaration — not a peace treaty because that requires input from China and South Korea, too — and promises of liaison offices and maybe a road map for future discussions.
“Maybe we will get some type of further commitment on no testing or no more production, but it’s not going to be detailed, it’s not going to have a road map that’s going to lead to denuclearization. No one expects that,” Okun said Thursday. “So what you’re going to see is some sort of incremental deal — certainly the president will call it historic because he calls all of his deals historic — but it’s going to be incremental.”
Trump previewed his lowered expectations for the Hanoi summit in a statement last week from the Oval Office.
“Well, I’d just like to see, ultimately, denuclearization of North Korea. I think we will see that ultimately. I have no pressing time schedule,” he said at the time. “And I think a lot of people would like to see it go very quickly from the other side.”
“But I’m in no rush. There’s no testing,” Trump added. “As long as there’s not testing, I’m in no rush. If there’s testing, that’s another deal.”
Still, before his Wednesday dinner with Kim, Trump said in a Twitter post that he remained committed to pursuing denuclearization.
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